Super Bowl Preview XLIX

Before I get to the Super Bowl breakdown I would like to share the best NFL Films clip and one of the best clips of all time. It is about Deacon Jones, a former NFL defensive lineman, who was famous for using a head slap to move the blocker out of the way. Listen carefully.

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My First New Baby

Baby made it home just in time for the best sporting day of the
year. NFL Championship weekend. I wasn't even going to let
the cheating Patriots bring me down that day.

I want to congratulate myself and my wife for successfully, like most of your parents, ushering a new life into this world. The labor was more laborious than I had planned, I had to hold a leg for over 3 hours, but with a sprinkle of grit and a dash of moxie we both got through it well.

I had been in a delivery room back in high school, and that baby was out before I finished my pack of peanut M&M’s. So I assumed it would be a fairly simple process, kinda like squeezing a hot dog out of its casing.  I have since learned that not all labors are the same.

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Underrated: Idiots Guide to Tony Romo

Tony Romo is the most scrutinized QB in NFL history. Love him or hate him everyone has an opinion. The problem is though, those that hate him are usually the loudest and dumbest people in the room.

The consensus on Romo was formed much like most of the nation’s political views; idiot pundits perpetually shouting out erroneous statements. Most people are too dumb to think for themselves so they usually just go along with what they believe is the consensus.

The only real negative arguments about Romo are anecdotal stories about a game where he threw an interception. For every story about how Romo choked there’s 5 stories about how he was clutch but people just focus on his failures.*

Anecdotal arguments are for the mental midgets. So let’s take a more tangible approach.

Quick Quiz: answer at the bottom **
Romo's last 5 complete seasons. Are they in order? Is he magically better this season?
Yards TD-INT

1, 3800     31-10

2. 3700     34-9

3. 4900     28-19

4. 4500     26-9

5. 4200     31-10

Quarterback Passer Rating (PR) isn’t a perfect rating system but it is the single most accurate statistic we have to judge a QB’s performance. (While I concede that stats don’t tell the whole story, they tell MUCH more of a story than No Stats). So let’s start here.

Career Passer Rating leaders.

1.	Aaron Rodgers (32)	106.0	2005-2014	gnb
2.	Tony Romo (35)	97.6	2004-2014	dal
3.	Peyton Manning (39)	97.5	1998-2014	2TM
4.	Steve Young+	96.8	1985-1999	2TM
5.	Tom Brady (38)	95.9	2000-2014	nwe
6.	Philip Rivers (34)	95.7	2004-2014	sdg
7.	Drew Brees (36)	95.4	2001-2014	2TM
8.	Ben Roethlisberger (33)	93.9	2004-2014	pit
9.	Kurt Warner	93.7	1998-2009	3TM
10.	Joe Montana+	92.3	1979-1994	2TM

As you can see. PR does a pretty good job at rating QB's.

"So what. Romo is a "talented" QB. He just sucks in crunch time."
- Romo Hater

Facts about the fourth quarter:

(Even though Romo has been great this season, none of the 4^th quarter and end of game data below includes this season. I do NOT want this to lead to the stupid argument that Romo is somehow magically better this season.**)

Since 2007:

Top 5 passer rating in 4th quarter (Minimum of 100 attempts) –

Aaron Rodgers 103.7

Tony Romo 103.2

Peyton Manning 101.9

Tom Brady 97.6

Shaun Hill 93.0

Top 5 passer rating with 5 minutes remaining (Minimum of 100 attempts) -

Aaron Rodgers 102.5

Peyton Manning 99.1

Tony Romo 92.3

Andrew Luck 90.0

Matt Cassel 89.4

Brady and Brees not on the list

Top three 4th quarter PR since 1991

                                 TD-INT

1.Rodgers    103.4        55-19

2.Romo        102.9       73-29

3.Young       97.7           9-4 (small sample size)

  

   Brady        91.7         96-41 (NOT 4th on this list. Just for comparisons sake) 

"Romo only has good stats in the 4^th quarter because he puts up great numbers in garbage time. I’ve watched a ton of close games where he blew it. He chokes when the game is on the line!"
-Romo Hater

Since 2006, most 4th-quarter comeback drives:
Tony Romo: 21

Peyton Manning: 20

Eli Manning: 19

Jay Cutler: 17

Matt Ryan: 17

Most TD passes in one-score games in the 4th-quarter since 2011

Quarterback                       TD passes            Comp.%               Rating

1. Tony Romo                    20                           64.3                        99.5

2. Tom Brady                      16                           60.2                        90.2 

(comparative inaccuracy and INT’s brings Brady’s rating down)

3. Eli Manning                    15                           57.6                        89.2

4. Matthew Stafford            15                           54.6                        81.4

5. Aaron Rodgers                12                           66.3                        116.9

 (obviously Rodgers is the best QB now and probably ever)

"If Romo is so good how come the Cowboys never win anything?"
- Romo Hater

The tail of two QB’s:

Romo became a starter in 2007 and was given a marginal coaching staff (after Parcells skipped town). A top 15 rushing attack only twice. Highest ranking was 7^th. A top 10 defense ONCE.

In that same time span Brady was given the best coach in NFL history and consistently a top rushing attack and defense. In the last eight years the Pats rushing attack finished top 15 seven times and top 10 four times. In the same eight years they were a top 10 defense seven times and top 5 three times (I’m not even counting the defenses and running attacks that brought the Pats multiple Super Bowls).

Moral of the story?

Romo has been a better QB than Brady by every metric (even the eye to be honest), except for anecdotal of course. But football is a team game. You give an equal QB a better running game, defense and the best coach you will see results. In Brady's case the only results were epic chokes and a few impressive regular season wins, well at least since the Brittney Spears and Kevin Federlines reality show, 

Romo will probably lose one of the next two road playoff games. And of course the non-thinking masses will blame him whether he has a good game or not.

Rushing	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Cowboys	13	17	21	7	16	18	31	24
Pats	12	13	6	12	9	20	7	9

Defense	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Cowboys	20	13	20	2	31	16	24	26
Pats	2	4	8	5	8	15	9	10

Couple more fun stats:

Romo vs Brady in close games and blowouts:

Final Margin of Victory Between	0-7 Points	15+ Points
	TD-INT-PR	TD-INT-PR
Tom Brady	129-74-88.0	194-35-111
Tony Romo	113-60-93.8	73-28-100.9

Romo's stats are a little better in a blowout but so is every QB's. However, check out how much of Brady's stats come in blowouts. He has More than DOUBLE the interceptions, 65 Less TD's and 23 point lower passer rating in close games. He piles on stats once the game is meaningless. Why is Romo the one accused of not being clutch when Brady is tremendously worse in close games? Oh yeah, people are stupid.

See my blog on why Brady is so overrated. 

http://bayaniflores.blogspot.com/2011/11/overrated-tom-brady-and-giselle.html

Career Passer Rating in December

Rodgers 103.2
Manning 99.4
Brees 94.9

Romo 94.1

Brady 92.5

Please share. And if you liked this you will probably like my blog on Tom Brady.

http://bayaniflores.blogspot.com/2011/11/overrated-tom-brady-and-giselle.html

*why not tell more of the good anecdotal stories like Romo’s heroic performance versus the Redskins last year. Rallying from a 9 point deficit late in the 4th quarter with a herniated disc that would require surgery a couple days later. After 3 unsuccessful runs at the goal line Romo put the team on his back to complete a 4th and goal at the 11. Reminded me a lot like when he rallied back on the road versus the Niners a couple years ago with a broken rib and a punctured lung.

**It doesn't matter. He's obviously been the same great player for many years. So look up the answer yourself..

Stats taken from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

Birthdays

Everyone knows that today is my Birthday and as I inch closer to death every year, I know there will be a day when I look in the mirror and wonder what happened to that young dashing, handsome, charismatic man. Today is not that day. I still got it!

In honor of myself I shall share my thoughts on birthdays......

Birthdays are a weird thing to celebrate. Usually you celebrate an accomplishment. Like the anniversary of starting a business, a wedding*, or a college graduation. Celebrating being born is the ultimate unaccomplishment. It is the ONE thing that everyone single person on this planet has done successfully.

But, since it is our culture to celebrate ourselves every year for not dying, why do we celebrate less as we get older? Birthdays become scarcer with each passing year. We should be celebrating harder each year. So for every special person having a birthday in 2015, time to start planning the party!

And Happy Birthday to Me!

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