This is my first entry into my new series: Overrated.
Edit update: 1-9-15
Tale of two Tom's.
TD's INT's Passer Rating
Brady in close games final margin of victory 0-7 points 129 74 88
Brady in blowouts final margin of victory 15+ points 194 35 111
Brady is super clutch in blowouts. Not so much in close games.
Edit update 1-21-13
How has "Mr. Clutch" fared since the Patriots got caught cheating?
Here's a year by year breakdown:
Throws 2 INT's in 13-27 loss Jake Plummer led Broncos
Manages to beat San Diego while throwing 3 INT's luckily the 4th one bounced off the defenders chest
Chokes away a 21-3 lead to the Colts. Propelling Manning to his first Superbowl.
Humongous favorites over the Giants. Going for the perfect season and and leading the best offense ever. Pulls probably the biggest choke job in NFL history and loses 17-14
Big Home Favorite vs Ravens and lose 33-14 to a second year Joe Flacco
Big Home Favorites vs Jets and lose 28-21 to Mark Sanchez
Poor performance vs the Ravens and should have lost but got bailed out several times. If you watched the game you don't need me to elaborate.
Favorites to the Giants and lose 21-17
Big Home Favorites to the Ravens and lose 28-13
Brady and the Patriots have been Huge playoff favorites in many games these past 8 years because he has been unbelievable in meaningless regular season games. Often blowing out teams and perennially putting up some of the best offensive regular season statistics. However, when it comes to the big playoff games Brady shrinks. Those monstrous offensive performances disappear.
Michael Smith on Tom Brady's Clutchness
Edit: Super Bowl hangover update 2-6-12:
Patriots just lost their second Super Bowl to the Giants. When was the last time the Patriots entered a playoff game and you said, "they need a big game from Brady to win"? When was the last time he came through in one of these games?
Giselle blamed Brady's teammates for the loss and that's understandable because he's her Baby Daddy and she knows about as much about football as anyone else who calls soccer football. Is she and every other Brady lover right? Is the reason Brady hasn't won a championship in 8 years because he has no help? Or is Giselle just upset because Bridget has 3 rings and she has zero? The answers are no, no, yes. Not only would I argue that he has help. I could argue that he has more help on offense than any QB in the NFL this year, and I will! Here's 3.5 reasons why:
1. Brady has great pass protection, if you don't agree you probably haven't watched any Pats games for the last 10 years.
2. The Pats have the number 4 rated rushing offense according to Football Outsiders (Footballoutsiders.com).
3. The Pats have a great receiving core. (When I say receiver I will be referring to Tight Ends also because they are used in the same way)
Wes Welker led the NFL in receptions 122, 9 TD's and was second with 1569 yards.
Rob Gronkowski led the NFL with 17 TD's, had 90 receptions and 1327 yards.
Aaron Hernandez had 79 receptions, 910 yards, and 7 TD's. And he missed two games. Pretty damn good for a number 3 receiver. In fact he's probably the best number 3 receiving option in the NFL.
Not only does Brady have great receivers but he probably has the best trio in the NFL. To go even further; these receivers are the best gaining yards after the catch. Welker led receivers with 732 Yards After Catch(YAC), Gronkowski second with 656 YAC, and Hernandez sixth with 519 YAC. Each one of these receivers had about half their yardage after the catch.
The fact that Brady doesn't have a "deep threat" is arguable but it doesn't matter too much. Belichick's system and the skill of the receivers gives Brady the luxury to throw 5, 10, and 15 yard passes that are turned into big gains. This trio had 65 20+-yard receptions. For comparison the Cruz/Nicks/Manningham trio had 46.
Now that you know the truth please stop buying into the media hype that these guys aren't great because Welker is white and the other two are called Tight Ends instead of Wide Receivers. They get open and make huge plays.
3.5. The defense wasn't nearly as bad as everyone says. They were really bad at the beginning of the season but greatly improved. So much so, that during their playoffs they were good. They allowed an average of 17 points per game. Which should be good enough for any elite QB .
Back to my main point. In the post season since 2004 Brady is 6-6, with 26 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions -- and that includes a six-touchdown game recently against the Denver Broncos. His QB rating has been sub 80 in half these games. He has been average at best.
When will we stop making excuses for Brady and blaming his teammates. When Tom Brady has a bad playoff game when will we stop saying "it was a very un-Brady like, not what we've come to expect from him, not his normal excellent self" and start sayings saying "He often struggles in big games"?
The truth will set you free.
End Update. Original Blog Below. Written 2011.
For my first entry intention was to make an empirical argument detailing why Tom Brady is the most overrated Quarterback in history. However while I was halfway through I started thinking just as much about his overrated super model wife. So I decided to combine two entries into one. If you are not a huge football fan I suggest you just skip to the pictures. If you don't feel like reading through statistics you will get a lot more out of my blog on Shower Tips.
|I guess Giselle has a Bieber Fever like the rest of us|
If you are a Brady lover you will undoubtedly accuse me of being a hater. So let's get a few things straight first. I do not hate Tom Brady, I've never even met him. I am not jealous of his overrated super model wife or his bastard child. Tom Brady is a very good QB and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
I am merely making a case that he is the most overrated player in football history. The main problem is that people put him in the conversation of the best ever when he's only second best QB of his generation and it's not even close (Much like how Giselle is the top paid Super Model in the world when she's not even the best Victorias Secret Model). For Brady top 10 all time is more appropriate. Best Ever? Let's take a look....
Edit: Admittedly this is not my most comprehensive work. It occurred to me while listening to all the sports pundits and arguing with some of my idiot friends that Brady lovers will not be able to take an objective look at any of these points. Similar to those who think Tebow is a good NFL QB and who thought Derrick Rose should have won MVP. If any clarification is necessary just ask!
I am going to use 5 arguments to prove my point. Each point will be separated by a round between Giselle and a plane Jane super model:
One: Brady compared to QB's of his generation
Two: Patriots without Brady
Three: Six football facts
Four: Brady's contribution during the 3 Super Bowl wins
Five: Brady's success since '04
|Gizelle is a good looking lady but def not number one|
|Round 1 winner|
Part 1: Brady's generation
Tom Brady is in his prime and playing the best football of his career yet is still only the third best Quarterback in the league behind Manning and Rogers.
Here's how Brady stacks up versus Manning in his career. This shows the number of times each QB has been in the top 5 in the league in each category. (These stats are from last year so it's one year off)
QB Rating Total Yards Yards/Attempt TD Passes INT% Comp % TOTAL
Peyton Manning 8 10 8 13 3 10 52
Tom Brady 2 3 1 5 2 3 16
If you really think Brady is better than Manning please pull out ONE stat that shows he's better. If you use Team Super Bowl rings read on.
Rodgers hasn't played that long so there aren't many meaningful stats I can pull up but if you know anything about football you would know that there is nothing Brady can do that Rodgers can't. And there are things Rodgers can do that Brady can't. If you watch football you'll know what I'm talking about.
|Like I said good looking but not number 1|
|Round 2 winner|
Part 2: Patriots without Brady
The Patriots system makes average Quarterbacks look good and good QB's look great. Here's a few examples of how a few teams have performed in the past when losing their star QB in their prime.
Patriots from 2005-2009 won 10, 12, 16, 11, 10 games respectively. Brady was injured one of the seasons. It is impossible to tell which season he was injured just looking at the numbers because the team seems to be fine without him. The "great" Tom Brady got injured and the Patriots didn't skip a beat. If Brady is so great then how come his team didn't experience that much of a drop off? Phenomenal backup maybe? Matt Cassel, who last made a start in high school, led the Patriots to 11 wins and the offense had the 5th most yards in the league. Let me repeat this. He did not start ONE game in his whole college career. His last start was HIGH SCHOOL! And what does a guy that wasn't good enough to get off the bench in college do? He steps into this great system that makes QB's look a lot better than they are and becomes a Pro Bowler. Cassel was the hot free agent that offseason but he was just a product of the system and will never make the Pro Bowl again.
Let's see how a few other teams did after their Hall of Fame QB went down.
Niners enter the '99 season coming off back to back NFC championship appearances. They start the season 3-1, Steve Young gets injured and the Niners finish 4-12.
Broncos win back to back Super Bowls then Elway retires. They win 6 games the next year.
The Indianapolis Colts win 10 games or more for 12 of 13 seasons (the one season they didn't win 10 games they were still second in the league in offense). Peyton Manning gets injured and now they are 0-11 and might run the table backwards.
Why no drop off when the Brady gets injured??
|This ones closer. But it's a sweep so far.|
Part 3: 6 Facts
There are two arguments that people commonly use to support their claim that Brady is the best ever
A. He has three Super Bowl rings. He's clutch and all he does is win.
B. He led his team to 16-0. He has great Regular Season numbers the last 6 years.
Both of these statements are true but very misleading. The confusion lies in the fact that Brady played for two different Patriot teams. The '00 to '05 team that won with defense and the '06 to present team that is built around him and the offense.
Before I break down the misconceptions of these two arguments I'm going to list a few things that we can both agree on. Let me remind you again that these are Facts not opinions.
1. Saying a QB is good because he is a "winner" is a very ignorant and short-sighted argument. The offense is on the field 40% of the time. During that time QB is one of 11 players, albeit the most important player by far. You must break down a QB's performance to determine how good they were. Whether they win or lose is a much smaller part of the equation than people want to admit.
2. The Patriots were a team built around defense during their Super Bowls. Their league rankings in defense during their Super Bowl years '04 2nd, '03 1st, '01 6th (but they only gave up 15.7 points per game in 3 playoff games)
3. In the last 5 years they have really opened up their offense and their teams success is now built around Tom Brady and the passing game (I don't think I need to pull up a stat to prove this).
4. Offensive passing stats the last 5 years are extremely inflated. And the records QB's are breaking nowadays aren't nearly as impressive as they seem.
From 1996 to '06 there was an average of 66 300 yard passing games per season. Since then there has been 81 in '07, 76 in '08, 104 in '09, 96 in '10. We've had 44 in the first four weeks which puts the NFL on pace for 176 this season (wrote this after week 4 obviously).
The ten year span of '96-'05 a QB has thrown for 4,000 yards or more 28 times. The last 5 years it has been done 33 times.
I think you get my point. If Brady or anyone else breaks any passing records make sure to put it into perspective.
5. Since Super Bowl one there has been 6 Super Bowls won by 3 points or less. Tom Brady and the Patriots account for 3 of them. Even if the Patriots didn't get lucky and are actually three points better each game they were very lucky to win all three of these games by such a close margin.
6. SPYGATE is for real. The Patriots did cheat during their Super Bowl run. The Patriots were given the strictest punishment in league history, a first round draft pick and 750,000 in fines. The cheating affected the outcome of the Patriots Super Bowls.
If the cheating didn't affect the outcome of the Super Bowl, Roger Goodell would have made the tapes public. He would have no reason to hide them, and would want to prove that the league has integrity. Instead he chose to destroy them. Yes the football commissioner is destroying evidence so the public will never be able to prove that this billion dollar industry was forever changed by a cheating scandal. I am shocked that destroying evidence can be so easily swept under the rug in the United States of America. This is what happens when people just don't want to believe the truth.
Furthermore if you believe that the Patriots cheating wasn't more prevalent than what they were actually caught for then you must also believe that when Sammy Sosa got caught with a corked bat it just happened to be the one and only time he did it. Don't be naive people.
|The refs wanna call it but the fight must go on|
Part 4: Patriots teams that won 3 Super Bowls
As I pointed out earlier the defense was the main part of their success. They won Super Bowls with a superior defense and a serviceable offense. Don't let the fact that Tom Brady has had dominant regular season performances the last 5 years cloud your mind from the facts. He wasn't dominant when they were winning Super Bowls. If you don't believe me here's a breakdown of Brady's contribution to each.
Super Bowl run one:
Let's start with the infamous tuck rule game. We all know how this game was won. Brady's zero touchdowns, a tuck rule, and Vinateri making two of the most amazing field goals in NFL history. Next round versus the Stealers Brady throws for 115 yards, zero touchdowns, Drew Bledsoe comes in and secures the win for the Patriots. In the Super Bowl they play the heavily favored Rams and Brady wins MVP for leading the Patriots to the win. Did the "MVP" really lead the Patriots to this win? I'll get back to that.
When you think of a QB that got carried to a Super Bowl by his defense Trent Dilfer is probably the first person that comes to your mind. Rightfully so, because he did a have a 153 yard 1 TD performance and is never given credit for it. How many times have you heard the Ravens defense won inspite of Dilfer. What if I told you the MVP Tom Brady had 145 yards passing and 1 TD. He was less significant in this win than Dilfer! It was obvious that the plan for the Patriots whole playoff run was to let the defense and Viniteri win and hope Brady doesn't do anything stupid. Much like the Ravens attitude during their Super Bowl. Why is Brady praised for this performance, awarded MVP, and labeled "clutch when Dilfer, whom had a better performance, is never given any respect?
Second Super Bowl run:
I'll give Brady props for a good post season performance. He deservingly wins MVP but only because his team won. Delhomme actually outperformed Brady unfortunately he didn't have the fortune of the best kicker in NFL history on his side. Remember the last 4 minutes? John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds and Viniteri kicks the game winner. You switch kickers and Carolina's hoisting the Lombardi trophy and Delhomme is MVP.
Third Superbowl run:
In their three playoff games the defense gives up an average of 17 points per game and Brady averages 195 yards per game. Add in Mcnabb throwing up in the huddle, Adam Viniteri, and Brady is an American hero once again.
Tom Brady just happened to be in the right place at the right time for all of these Super Bowl victories. People talk about Brady leading the Patriots to 3 Super Bowls but this is simply not the case. The Patriots were going to win multiple championships with Bledsoe had he not gotten injured.
Now to my last point on "Brady's dominance" and being a winner. He won three Super Bowls by a TOTAL of 9 points. He did not win these Super Bowls running away like Young, Aikman, Brad Johnson, and Trent Dilfer. He won each game by only 3 points. And they cheated to do it. It amazes me how much credit Brady gets for some mediocre performances, extreme good fortune, and cheating. He and the Patriots could easily have zero rings. Isn't it funny that if the Patriots don't cheat or if Viniteri doesn't have an amazing game or a couple bounces don't go the Patriots way then Brady's status all of a sudden would go from "a clutch winner" to a great regular season QB that chokes when it matters.
|Thanks for playing Giselle|
Part 5: Brady's success since '04
Brady is no longer carried by the defense and Vinateri. It's no secret that since 2005 the Patriots have let Brady take the reins. They can no longer win Super Bowls with the same performances he had when they won their three Super Bowls. The team is now structured where they can only go as far as he takes them. He has responded with some great regular season performances. Including an undefeated regular season where he lead the Patriots to an NFL record 36.8 points per game. However when it mattered he LEAD his team to 14 points and the biggest choke job in NFL history (sorry but if you're calling him captain clutch for a few game winning field goals then you better be calling him captain choke too). When it comes to the playoffs he has been anything but stellar. He has yet to win while carrying the team on his shoulders. His last three playoff games he entered as a huge favorite but ended up losing to teams with Quarterbacks named Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez.
Part 6: Memories
This part is optional because it is subjective and my personal thoughts on the matter.
Now let's think of some of the great Quarterbacks in history. What do you remember of Joe Montana. The Catch? 4 minutes left in the Super Bowl, Niners with the ball on his own 8 yard line down 3 points and driving 92 yards for the game winning touchdown? Or maybe his 55-10 Superbowl win the next year? Or the 11 td's 0 interception 127 passer rating in 4 Super Bowls? Ok that's unfair, enough about Joe Montana. How about John Elway and "the drive". Or Elway diving for the first down being hit by two packers helicoptering through the air to win his first championship. How about Steve young running 54 yards through the heart of the Vikings defense for a touchdown or his 6 touchdown superbowl record in the blowout vs the chargers. Big Ben's drive and pass to Santiono Holmes. Heck even Eli Manning Super Bowl drive is more memorable than anything Brady has ever done.
Try closing your eyes and thinking of a memorable Brady Playoff moment. What came to mind? His famous tuck rule fumble in the snow vs the Raiders? How about him leading the Patriots passed the heavily favored Rams in the Super Bowl with his masterful 150 yard performance? Or maybe you're thinking of his remarkable 18-1 season when he led the Patriots to the worst choke in NFL history? Point here is your dominant memories of Brady are all in the regular season. And this is clouding the memory of many people into thinking he lead the Patriots to 3 Super Bowls.
Brady is having a great year and might do something before he retires to move himself into the conversation of the Montana, Elways and Mannings. But until then that happens he will be overrated.
|Maybe I should do blog on Overrated Couples|
|These two deserve each other|
For those of you who had your I love Brady bubble burst here's something to help you feel better